For those in states with primary election dates that seem too late to matter...
WHEN WILL A NOMINEE BE CHOSEN? By Dianne Edmondson
Thanks to the new RNC rules, only 2286 delegates are approved for the national convention. (Several states were penalized half their delegates for holding their primaries too early: SC, FL, MI and AZ.) Thus, it will take 1143 delegate votes to win the nomination. Using the data below, even if one candidate takes ALL delegates in every primary between now and May 22 (the Arkansas proportionate primary date), there WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH DELEGATE VOTES TO NOMINATE until at least the California winner take all primary, June 5. And proportionate states likely will have split delegates making it even less likely that any candidate can lock up the nomination, as long as two or more remain in the race.
CHRONOLOGICAL PRIMARY DATES AND DELEGATE COUNTS
We are assuming that one candidate will take all delegates (shown in parentheses) in these primaries, even in the proportionate states. Proportionate states and their thresholds are italicized.
IA (28) 6/5/12 (based on Jan. caucus)
NH (12) 1/10/12 prop. 10%
SC (25) 1/21/12
FL (50) 1/31/12
NV (28) 2/4/12 pref. caucus
MI (30) 2/28/12 prop. 15%
AZ (29) 2/28/12
OH (66) 3/6/12 prop. 20%
AL (50) 3/13/12 prop. 20%
MS (40) 3/13/12 prop. 15%
ID (32) 3/6/12 caucus prop. 15% - 5/15/12 primary
PR (23) 3/18/12
IL (69) 3/20/12
DC (19) 4/3/12
MD (37) 4/3/12
TX (155) 4/3/12 prop. 20%
PA (72) 4/24/12
NY (95) 4/24/12 prop. 20%
IN (46) 5/8/12
NC (55) 5/8/12 prop.
WV (31) 5/8/12
NE (35) 5/15/12 non binding primary
OR (28) 5/15/12 prop.
KY (45) 5/22/12 prop. 15%
AR (36) 5/22/12 prop. 15%
DELEGATE COUNT WILL BE AT ABOUT 1140 IF ALL ABOVE WENT TO ONE CANDIDATE, 5 SHORT OF NOMINATING NUMBER. PROBABLY WILL BE LESS DUE TO PROPORTIONAL STATES’ DELEGATES BEING SPLIT AMONG SEVERAL CANDIDATES
